{"id":35,"date":"2009-08-22T12:59:45","date_gmt":"2009-08-22T19:59:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/privatemoneysource.com\/blog\/?p=35"},"modified":"2009-08-22T12:59:45","modified_gmt":"2009-08-22T19:59:45","slug":"35","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/privatemoneysource.com\/blog\/?p=35","title":{"rendered":"Private Money \u2013 The Rules of Physics May Not Apply"},"content":{"rendered":"

Clay Sparkman
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

I would like to make a proposal.\u00a0 I would like to propose that the standard universal laws don\u2019t necessarily apply to private money lending.\u00a0 That is, the things which we most take for granted\u2014or assume to be true–may not be true in the realm of private money lending.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s talk about systems for a moment.\u00a0 Let\u2019s take physics as an example.\u00a0 Physics is the scientific mechanism which man has devised for describing, conceptualizing and predicting the behavior of the physical world.\u00a0 In the realm of physics, if one rule or one aspect of the system is called into question\u2014even a small matter\u2014then the entire system must be called into question.\u00a0 This has happened on various occasions as the science of physics has evolved, and as you can well imagine, it has caused quite a fuss among those who study physics.<\/p>\n

My goal here is to break your notion that the things which you \u201cknow to be true\u201d in the realm of private money lending can be correctly assumed to be true.\u00a0 Let\u2019s start with something absolutely fundamental.\u00a0 Everyone agrees that there is a direct relationship between the perceived risk of loss of investment capital associated with a particular investment and the rate of return from that investment.\u00a0 And I think it would be fair to say that pretty much everyone in the field agrees (1) that private money loans are riskier than their institutional counterparts (hereinafter referred to as institutional loans, a category to include conventional loans, sub-prime loans, and everything not included in the category of private money) and thus carry higher interest rates, and (2) that within the private money realm, riskier loans carry higher interest rates than those which are perceived to be less risky.\u00a0 I would be quite surprised if any of my readers take issue with either of these two basic notions.\u00a0 Let me clarify one more time because this is important: when I speak of risk here, I am referring to the risk of direct monetary loss of investment capital.<\/p>\n

So let me now proceed to turn these two basic notions upside down.\u00a0 Fundamental notion #1 suggests that private money loans are riskier than institutional loans and that this is the reason why they carry higher interest rates.\u00a0 This is quite simply wrong.\u00a0 Institutional lenders don\u2019t avoid risky loans per say.\u00a0 In fact, the sub-prime realm tends to thrive on them.\u00a0 Institutional lenders can (and do) factor known risk into their lending process.\u00a0 What institutional lenders will not tolerate is this: they will not tolerate loans which cannot be analyzed or characterized within a specific manageable and objective framework.\u00a0 Put another way, institutional lenders are only interested in commodity loans\u2014as opposed, let\u2019s say, to custom loans.<\/p>\n

And why is this true?\u00a0 It is true because institutional lenders choose to manage risk and this can only be done effectively within a commodity loan system.\u00a0 Even though these lenders can accommodate almost any degree of risk, they cannot–and will not–accommodate unknown risk.\u00a0 All risk must be measurable, and risk\u2014to say it another way–is only measurable within a specific manageable and objective framework.\u00a0 Using FICO scores and other specific measures, the typical institutional lender can predict to within a dime the value of their loan portfolios that will go bad.\u00a0 So you see, by managing risk, in effect they eliminate risk.\u00a0 Any given loan involves a certain amount of risk, but a portfolio of commodity loans is utterly predictable.<\/p>\n

In case you\u2019re not buying this particular line of logic, and you think that I\u2019m just working with smoke and mirrors here, let me offer some (fairly) objective data.\u00a0 At Fairfield Financial, we manage a portfolio of 200+ private money loans at any given time, a package that adds up to about $30 million dollars in face value.\u00a0 Our average mid-score for that package is between 650 and 660.\u00a0 That portfolio sees an average of 2 loans per year go to REO.\u00a0 That is a 1% default rate.\u00a0 Those are good figures: 650-660 mid scores and 1% default rate.\u00a0 I suspect that many institutional lenders would rather enjoy such numbers.\u00a0 And thus, it seems that our loans are not necessarily more risky\u2014or even as risky\u2014as their institutional counterpart.\u00a0 Then of course then our rates must be on par with the institutional realm as well, yes?\u00a0 No.\u00a0 Our median interest rate is 13% (fixed).<\/p>\n

Okay fine.\u00a0 Certain irregularities occur in the risk-reward relationship when crossing from the institutional money realm to the realm of private money.\u00a0 But surely we can say\u2014with complete confidence–that within the realm of private money, riskier loans carry a higher rate of interest than those perceived to be less risky.\u00a0 Here again, I would respectively suggest: it just aint so!<\/p>\n

Private money lenders are averse to risk–as are all investors.\u00a0 However, private money lenders on the whole are particularly averse to risk of default (as opposed to risk of loss).\u00a0 Risk of default involves (a) temporary cash flow interruptions (something we affectionately refer to as \u201ccashflowus interuptus\u201d), (b) lying awake at nights and worrying about non-performing or sporadically-performing loans (which we call \u201cbad boys\u201d), and (c) lots of hassles and many hours of work (which tend to accompany the bad boys).<\/p>\n

In fact, I would assert that on the whole private money lenders are less averse to risk of long-term potential loss then they are to risk of default, which we shall refer to hereafter as the \u201cbad boy problems.\u201d\u00a0 I have spent the past 15 years of my life pricing private money loans and have a pretty good idea of how the market works.\u00a0 Pricing private money loans is a little like pricing antiques but tougher; it is a highly subjective process.\u00a0 But of course there are certain guidelines.\u00a0 One takes a hard look at the long-term risk of the loan and at the potential for bad boy problems.\u00a0 I would argue that the best indicator of long-term risk is LTV.\u00a0 Bad boy problem indicators (such as credit, income, and pay history) may play into the risk equation, but as any private money lender will tell you, they are betting on the equity first and the borrower second\u2014and in fact the borrower is a distant second.\u00a0 Having established LTV as a risk indicator, let\u2019s look for a bad boy indicator.\u00a0 Let\u2019s go with FICO mid-score.\u00a0 I have found that FICO mid-score is indeed a very reliable indicator of the likelihood that you will have a bad boy on your hands.\u00a0 When it comes to financial responsibility\/performance, it seems that the past is a very good predictor of the future.<\/p>\n

So now we have two objective scales to work with: LTV and FICO mid-score.\u00a0 Here I\u2019m going to take a giant leap (very unscientific, but also very interesting) and make the assumption that these two scales are basically linear.\u00a0 The LTV scale for private money loans basically runs from 0% to 75%.\u00a0 The FICO mid-score scale runs from 300 to 850.\u00a0 So that now we have established a ratio of 7.33 between the two scales ([850-300]\/75).\u00a0 Thus we can say that a 10% change in LTV on the risk scale is roughly proportionate to a change of 73 in FICO mid-score on the bad boy scale.<\/p>\n

If risk is the primary factor driving interest rate, then a 75% LTV loan to a borrower with a 700 mid-score would carry a higher interest rate than a 55% LTV loan to a borrower with a 554 mid-score.\u00a0 Well, in fact just the opposite happens.\u00a0 Equalizing for other factors, I would tend to price the first loan at 12-13% and the second loan at 14-15%.\u00a0 So you see, long-term risk is a distant second to bad boy factors when pricing a private money loan.<\/p>\n

Someone I respect immensely recently said that it is not what we don\u2019t know that endangers us the most.\u00a0 It is what we think we know but know incorrectly.<\/p>\n

If you go away from this post knowing that the risk-reward relationship as applied to private money is a myth, then you have learned a little something.\u00a0 If you lie awake tonight and wonder if things that go up in the private money universe really must come down\u2014then that dare I say may qualify as an epiphany.<\/p>\n

— Clay (clay@privatemoneysource.com)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Clay Sparkman I would like to make a proposal.\u00a0 I would like to propose that the standard universal laws don\u2019t necessarily apply to private money lending.\u00a0 That is, the things which we most take for granted\u2014or assume to be true–may not be true in the realm of private money lending. Let\u2019s talk about systems for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_s2mail":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/privatemoneysource.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/privatemoneysource.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/privatemoneysource.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/privatemoneysource.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/privatemoneysource.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/privatemoneysource.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/privatemoneysource.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/privatemoneysource.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/privatemoneysource.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}